Author links open overlay panelMarta Victoria 1 2 13, Nancy Haegel 3, Ian Marius Peters 4, Ron Sinton 5, Arnulf Jäger-Waldau 6, Carlos del Cañizo 7, Christian Breyer 8, Matthew Stocks 9, Andrew Blakers 9, Izumi Kaizuka 10, Keiichi Komoto 11,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.03.005Get rights and contentAuthor links open overlay panelMarta Victoria 1 2 13, Nancy Haegel 3, Ian Marius Peters 4, Ron Sinton 5, Arnulf Jäger-Waldau 6, Carlos del Cañizo 7, Christian Breyer 8, Matthew Stocks 9, Andrew Blakers 9, Izumi Kaizuka 10, Keiichi Komoto 11,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.03.005Get rights and contentUnder an Elsevier user licenseopen archive••Limiting assumptions on cost and grid integration explains low PV shares in IAMs••Developments in the pipeline could maintain a high learning rate for solar PV-••Materials and land availability are not expected to limit solar PV deployment••Sector coupling could allow large shares of solar PV- in primary energyLimiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C requires a rapid and profound transformation of our energy system. Solar photovoltaics (PV) is a mature technology ready to contribute to this challenge. Throughout the last decade, a higher capacity of solar PV was installed globally than any other power-generation technology and cumulative capacity at the end of 2019 accounted for more than 600 GW. However, many future low-carbon energy scenarios have failed to identify the potential of this technology.In this perspective, we present arguments for anticipating that PVs could become our majority global energy source and argue for an improved representation of this technology in the models. New innovations, at both the solar cell and system levels, could contribute to keeping the high learning rate shown in the past. Neither materials nor land use will prevent PV expansion. The integration of strategies, both existing and under development, could enable solar PV to contribute not only to decarbonization of the power grid but also other sectors through direct or indirect electrification.Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO2 emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.••photovoltaicslearning curvecostsintegrated assessment modelpartial-equilibrium modelgrid integrationmaterials availabilityland use.
